In USA Today, William Cummings, gives a ‘semaine a venir’ in how the polls are looking a week out from Election Day in America. Though it is very premature it is becoming interesting as the early voting is heating up. Though we can’t give total credence to the polling systems, as evident from the 2016 Presidential Election experience, we can excite ourselves knowing that it is coming to an end. Get out and vote everyone. Here’s an excerpt from the report:
As millions of Americans continue to cast their ballots in early voting, the polls have finally caught up to most of the biggest news events around the campaign, and their results include voter reactions to the first debate, the vice presidential debate, Trump’s COVID-19 infection and his subsequent recovery.
They have found Biden still holding a commanding lead nationally (though down slightly from last week) and leading in 10 of 12 swing states. But Trump regained a slight polling average lead in Ohio and ate a big chunk out of Biden’s leads in Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Trump also erased much of Biden’s gains in Florida from last week. Some Democrats had hoped those gains signaled Biden was pulling away in the crucial Sunshine State.
The USA TODAY average of averages is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. This week, we added Iowa to the list of swing states we are monitoring between now and the Nov. 3 election.
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 51.9%, Trump 42.1% (Biden +9.8)
Last week: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)
Net change: Trump +0.3
- RCP: Biden 51.3%, Trump 42.4%
- FiveThirtyEight: Biden 52.5%, Trump 41.7%
At this point in 2016: Clinton +6.5
Swing state averages
Arizona: Biden +3.8
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 49.3%, Trump 45.5%
Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 45.2% (Biden +3.3)
Net change: Biden +0.5
Florida: Biden +2.7
USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 48.7%, Trump 46.0%
Last week: Biden 48.5%, Trump 44.5% (Biden +4.0)
Net change: Trump +1.3
- William Cummings